by Prof David Karoly

A long time ago, David Karoly was a skeptic. Looking closely at the evidence for global average temperatures, David found them unconvincing — “early computer models didn’t account for the cooling effects of emissions from fossil fuels and the signal was largely hidden by the southern oscillation (ENSO) and others”. Two of his earliest papers published in 1987 and 1989 were the first to demonstrate a significant effect in the fingerprint of warming in the atmosphere and cooling in the stratosphere, at which point his skepticism dissolved and he became one of Australia’s most ardent climate champions.

“But that was a long time ago,” says David, “and it means we’ve known about climate change, and done nothing about it, long before the IPCC was set up. The implications for our planet and our children have been willfully and woefully ignored by politicians, government and media, especially in Australia, and it’s still ignored today.”

One thing we need to realise as Australians is that we live on a continental landmass, and while the sea surface temperatures predict warming at one level, we need to realise that temperatures will rise 40-50% faster than predicted by sea surface models. Whilst these predict a 2.8 degree (Celsius) rise, the reality for Australia is more like 4 degrees, especially inland. 

“The good news is that Australia, after years of being a laggard under the coalition, is now on track to limit domestic emissions towards net zero, and this is largely because the current federal government has made changes to the Climate Change Act, supported by state initiatives. At the moment, WA and Queensland are leading the way with up to 43% emissions reductions.”

He cautions, however, that much of the Australian way of life is not just supported by domestic emissions but that coal and gas emissions from exports is roughly double our domestic consumption. 

“The Paris Agreement requires developed countries to take the lead. The problem with Australia is that whilst it considers itself a developed country it has acted in the climate space as if it were still developing. We often hear the argument that Australia’s economy should not be compromised by limiting emissions because its competitive advantage relies on fossil fuels and its contribution to global carbon emissions, representing about 1.3%, is so tiny as to register barely a blip. But this disregards Australia’s role as a leader that prides itself on fairness. Australia represents only .33% of the global population, yet we remain the 14th biggest emitter, one of the highest emitters per person, so our lifestyle has been largely supported by emissions per capita that we would effectively deny to developing nations in a world that must collectively reduce emissions. This is not fair, and certainly not casting Australia as a leader under the Paris Agreement.

Climate change is a compounding factor impacting both the economy and the natural ecology in which it is nested. It’s having a vast impact on species loss and we need to go beyond the idea of sustaining our ecology, with more aggressive action focused on ecological restoration. 

Restoration is a key theme being embraced by the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, a group of scientists, economists and business leaders advocating for Australia’s land, water, and biodiversity. The concept was also recently picked up by a climate change feature by ABC’s Behind the News, a children’s program in which Gen Z and Alpha are described as ‘Generation Restoration’.

As to Australia’s nuclear debate, David says we already have the technology.

Fueled by hydrogen, Australia already has a self-regulating power station that relies on nuclear fusion of hydrogen atoms to form helium, emitting vast energy via photons as a byproduct, all without radioactive waste. It’s called the ‘Sun’. 

“There’s one key difference,” says David. “While power plants on Earth need constant refueling, the Sun has enough hydrogen fuel to keep burning for billions of years to come. It’s a truly magnificent natural power station, and we have the technology to harness it!”

Australia has, as Ross Garnaut says, the ability to become a renewables superpower. “We have some of the world’s best access to solar and wind energy. But we must carefully manage our distribution systems. We can’t sacrifice forests or marine ecologies for our power infrastructure.” 

Another aspect of Australia’s good news is that, along with young people, we have a vast store of Indigenous knowledge spanning sustainable land management for 65,000 years. “Their land management and connection to country has already been tried and tested. It worked for millennia.”

“If anything, the hope for the future of Australia resides in the growing empowerment and awareness of its young, allied with the wisdom of its Elders, and the will to harness modern renewable technologies and ways of living within Nature.”

Joint winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize and Australia’s leading climatologist, Federation Prof David Karoly, gained his PhD in meteorology at the UK’s University of Reading. He became Director of the Monash Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and later Leader of the Earth Systems and Climate Change hub and was a lead author for the IPCC Working Group 2 on the social impacts of climate change.